Philadelphia Phillies 6–5 Miami Marlins

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 17, 10:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.13	Portfolio	$11.87	3.13	$25.28	+10%	-11.87	lost
Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.89	$18.95	+12%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Kansas City Royals v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 lost leg 2: San Diego Padres win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	14.12	$26.24	+16%	-2.00	lost
Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.66	$16.59	+3%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	66%	1.52
Miami Marlins win	34%	3.18

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Miami Marlins win		2.59	3.00	+15.9%
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.42	1.40	-1.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Miami Marlins	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	5
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	1	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Philadelphia Phillies	Miami Marlins
congestion 21d	19.00	19.00
elo	1540.93	1497.79
elo momentum (last 5)	3.41	3.59
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	1.19	1.21
runs against avg (last 10)	4.20	3.90
runs for avg (last 10)	5.30	5.10