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Kansas City Royals 9–5 Oakland Athletics

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 17, 11:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Kansas City Royals v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 lost
leg 2: San Diego Padres win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost
leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 lost
Chaos parlay$2.0014.12$26.24+16%-2.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Kansas City Royals v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59
Elo value MLB$10.002.59$15.88+7%-10.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Kansas City Royals v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59
MLB dog variance$10.002.59$15.88+7%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kansas City Royals win63%1.57
Oakland Athletics win37%46.79

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Oakland Athletics win2.4646.79+1802.7%
Kansas City Royals win1.571.53-2.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Oakland Athletics1000300015
Kansas City Royals32100102—9

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKansas City RoyalsOakland Athletics
congestion 21d18.0019.00
elo1443.711417.59
elo momentum (last 5)1.11-0.91
matches since win0.000.00
rest days1.151.15
runs against avg (last 10)4.506.50
runs for avg (last 10)3.604.70