← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 17, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Kansas City Royals v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 lost leg 2: San Diego Padres win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.12 | $26.24 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Kansas City Royals v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Kansas City Royals v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 63% | 1.57 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 37% | 46.79 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.46 | 46.79 | +1802.7% | |
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.57 | 1.53 | -2.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Kansas City Royals | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kansas City Royals | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1443.71 | 1417.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.11 | -0.91 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |