← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 17, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.42, WHIP 1.13)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Kansas City Royals v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 lost leg 2: San Diego Padres win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.12 | $26.24 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 53% | 1.87 |
| San Diego Padres win | 47% | 2.09 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.93 | 2.02 | +4.8% | |
| New York Mets win | 1.73 | 1.83 | +5.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| New York Mets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1492.30 | 1532.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.10 | 10.19 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.90 |