← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 08:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Gabriel Hughes (ERA 5.61, WHIP 1.28) · home: Blade Tidwell (ERA 2.78, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Portland Timbers win in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.25 leg 2: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 leg 3: Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 19.32 | $36.65 | +95% | — | pending |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +20% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +20% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $23.10 | 1.76 | $17.62 | +6% | -23.10 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 46% | 2.17 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 1.93 | 2.12 | +9.7% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.72 | 1.76 | +2.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1470.41 | 1392.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.55 | 6.24 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.60 |