← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Randy Dobnak (ERA 2, WHIP 1.33) · home: Reid Detmers (ERA 4, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Royals win in Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Kansas City Royals win in Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 lost leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 3: San Diego Padres win in Cleveland Guardians v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.87 | $15.74 | +21% | -2.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 55% | 2.09 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 45% | 2.66 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.09 | 1.83 | -12.9% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 1.70 | 2.05 | +20.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1420.01 | 1441.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.04 | -5.50 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.30 |