← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Joey Cantillo (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.48)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Kansas City Royals win in Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 lost leg 2: Texas Rangers win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 lost leg 3: San Diego Padres win in Cleveland Guardians v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.87 | $15.74 | +21% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Cleveland Guardians v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 54% | 1.83 |
| San Diego Padres win | 46% | 2.14 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 2.05 | 2.02 | -1.5% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.67 | 1.83 | +9.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1489.85 | 1532.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.39 | 15.96 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.60 |