Atlanta Braves 0–2 Arizona Diamondbacks

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 14, 11:15 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Brandon Pfaadt (ERA 3.36, WHIP 1.2)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	10.67	$19.34	+23%	+19.34	won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.66	$16.59	+9%	+16.59	won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.66	$16.59	+9%	+16.59	won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81	Portfolio	$8.82	2.81	$15.98	+5%	+15.98	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Atlanta Braves win	65%	1.50
Arizona Diamondbacks win	35%	2.89

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Arizona Diamondbacks win		2.77	2.66	-4.1%
Atlanta Braves win		1.42	1.48	+4.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Arizona Diamondbacks	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Atlanta Braves	Arizona Diamondbacks
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1554.01	1517.75
elo momentum (last 5)	1.20	-3.26
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	2.00	2.15
runs against avg (last 10)	2.80	3.50
runs for avg (last 10)	4.60	4.40