← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.09, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.67 | $19.34 | +23% | +19.34 | won |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +5% | +7.94 | won |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +5% | +7.94 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 54% | 1.86 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 46% | 8.56 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.90 | 2.05 | +8.4% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.83 | 1.83 | -0.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1512.16 | 1486.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.48 | -8.33 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.18 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.20 |