← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 14, 11:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Atlanta Braves v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 won leg 2: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.67 | $19.34 | +23% | +19.34 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +8% | +12.36 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +8% | +12.36 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 58% | 1.70 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 42% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.67 | 1.65 | -1.5% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.24 | 2.29 | +2.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1504.12 | 1551.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.47 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.17 | 1.24 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |