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Oakland Athletics 4–8 Tampa Bay Rays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 12, 07:05 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Drew Rasmussen (ERA 2.75, WHIP 0.91) · home: Jack Perkins (ERA 7.04, WHIP 1.45)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98
Portfolio$7.022.98$13.92+5%-7.02lost
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98 lost
leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won
leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 lost
Chaos parlay$2.0010.94$19.87+38%-2.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98
Elo value MLB$10.002.98$19.83+14%-10.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59
MLB dog variance$10.002.59$15.88+1%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tampa Bay Rays win65%1.55
Oakland Athletics win35%7.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Tampa Bay Rays win1.461.47+0.7%
Oakland Athletics win2.592.89+11.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Tampa Bay Rays0214000108
Oakland Athletics0020000204

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOakland AthleticsTampa Bay Rays
congestion 21d19.0019.00
elo1414.881540.84
elo momentum (last 5)-0.9514.06
matches since win2.000.00
rest days0.730.73
runs against avg (last 10)7.403.90
runs for avg (last 10)3.905.90