← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 12, 07:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Drew Rasmussen (ERA 2.75, WHIP 0.91) · home: Jack Perkins (ERA 7.04, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98 | Portfolio | $7.02 | 2.98 | $13.92 | +5% | -7.02 | lost |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.94 | $19.87 | +38% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.98 | $19.83 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 65% | 1.55 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 35% | 7.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.46 | 1.47 | +0.7% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.59 | 2.89 | +11.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1414.88 | 1540.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.95 | 14.06 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.40 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.90 |