← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 13, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Parker Messick (ERA 2.57, WHIP 1.04) · home: Keider Montero (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.01)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Portfolio | $11.59 | 1.86 | $9.97 | +4% | +9.97 | won |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.94 | $19.87 | +38% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +11% | +8.61 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 50% | 2.08 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 50% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.93 | 1.83 | -5.3% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.76 | 2.01 | +14.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1524.63 | 1495.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.87 | -0.09 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 5.00 |