← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 13, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Braxton Ashcraft (ERA 4.08, WHIP 1.16) · home: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.47, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.12 | Portfolio | $22.96 | 2.12 | $25.72 | +9% | -22.96 | lost |
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98 lost leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.94 | $19.87 | +38% | -2.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 52% | 1.90 |
| Miami Marlins win | 48% | 2.12 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.83 | 1.79 | -1.8% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.86 | 2.07 | +11.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1497.89 | 1479.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.54 | -11.21 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.80 |