St. Louis Cardinals 7–1 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 12, 06:15 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Zack Wheeler (ERA 2.69, WHIP 0.98) · home: Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.45, WHIP 1.34)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.45	Portfolio	$14.24	2.45	$20.65	+7%	+20.65	won
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 lost leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	12.82	$23.63	+41%	-2.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+7%	+12.36	won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	+7%	+12.36	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	57%	18.75
St. Louis Cardinals win	43%	2.45

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.61	1.62	+0.7%
St. Louis Cardinals win		2.19	2.35	+7.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
St. Louis Cardinals	0	1	0	0	4	0	2	0	—	7

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	St. Louis Cardinals	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	20.00	19.00
elo	1488.04	1534.37
elo momentum (last 5)	0.57	-5.70
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	3.60	4.10
runs for avg (last 10)	4.50	5.20