← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 11:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Patrick Sandoval (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.67) · home: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.28, WHIP 1.04)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 | Portfolio | $22.67 | 2.32 | $29.92 | +11% | -22.67 | lost |
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 lost leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.82 | $23.63 | +41% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.32 | $13.20 | +24% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 54% | 1.93 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 46% | 2.32 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.93 | 2.24 | +15.7% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.90 | 1.68 | -11.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1502.24 | 1556.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.13 | -6.30 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 7.00 |