← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Shota Imanaga (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1.09)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 lost leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.82 | $23.63 | +41% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.47 | $14.70 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.47 | $14.70 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 58% | 1.70 |
| Washington Nationals win | 42% | 2.47 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.65 | 1.60 | -3.1% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 2.19 | 2.42 | +10.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Washington Nationals | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1475.10 | 1559.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.74 | 5.20 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.27 | 2.19 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.00 |