New York Yankees 10–5 Seattle Mariners

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 12, 11:00 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Bryce Miller (ERA 3.08, WHIP 0.95) · home: Will Warren (ERA 4.18, WHIP 1.37)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85	Drought fade	$10.00	1.85	$8.50	+17%	+8.50	won
leg 1: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	4.89	$7.78	+44%	-2.00	lost
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.86	$8.61	+17%	+8.61	won
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Portfolio	$21.86	1.86	$18.81	+7%	+18.81	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	53%	1.86
Seattle Mariners win	47%	2.09

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Seattle Mariners win		1.93	2.05	+6.2%
New York Yankees win		1.76	1.79	+1.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Seattle Mariners	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
New York Yankees	0	1	2	0	2	0	3	2	—	10

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	New York Yankees	Seattle Mariners
congestion 21d	18.00	17.00
elo	1551.69	1486.80
elo momentum (last 5)	0.16	-15.92
matches since win	0.00	5.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.10	4.80
runs for avg (last 10)	2.90	2.30