← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 12, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Zac Thornton (ERA 2.52, WHIP 1.07) · home: Tyler Mahle (ERA 4.83, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 4.89 | $7.78 | +44% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +4% | +6.21 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 59% | 1.67 |
| New York Mets win | 41% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.24 | 2.34 | +4.6% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.62 | 1.63 | +0.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1551.48 | 1488.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.17 | 6.58 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.20 |