← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 12, 07:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ryan Feltner (ERA 5.71, WHIP 1.45) · home: Merrill Kelly (ERA 4.88, WHIP 1.47)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Portfolio | $27.30 | 1.57 | $15.59 | +6% | -27.30 | lost |
leg 1: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 4.89 | $7.78 | +44% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 41% | 2.52 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.24 | 2.46 | +10.0% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.62 | 1.57 | -3.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1522.11 | 1386.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.25 | 0.88 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.30 |