← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 12, 01:45 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Hunter Brown (ERA 3.53, WHIP 1.24)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 won leg 2: Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.73 | $13.45 | +44% | -2.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +25% | +15.22 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +25% | +15.22 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | Portfolio | $20.31 | 2.52 | $30.91 | +11% | +30.91 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 61% | 1.67 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 39% | 2.69 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.64 | 1.55 | -5.4% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.19 | 2.52 | +15.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1470.47 | 1513.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.28 | -0.28 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.10 |