← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 10, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Trevor Rogers (ERA 4.2, WHIP 1.24) · home: Dean Kremer (ERA 5.93, WHIP 1.32)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 won leg 2: Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.73 | $13.45 | +44% | -2.00 | lost |
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +4% | +10.10 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 50% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.90 | 1.89 | -0.2% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.90 | 1.93 | +1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1468.85 | 1497.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.88 | -3.16 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |