← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 12, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 4.51, WHIP 1.26) · home: Mitch Bratt (ERA 3.9, WHIP 1.52)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.59 | Portfolio | $30.71 | 1.59 | $18.12 | +7% | -30.71 | lost |
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 won leg 2: Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.73 | $13.45 | +44% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.52 | $5.24 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 62% | 1.59 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 38% | 4.51 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.52 | 2.50 | -0.9% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.50 | 1.57 | +4.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1525.05 | 1383.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.97 | -4.75 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.30 |