St. Louis Cardinals 2–0 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 11:45 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.65, WHIP 1.22) · home: Andre Pallante (ERA 3.63, WHIP 1.22)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.49	Portfolio	$15.53	2.49	$23.14	+9%	+23.14	won
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 3: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.11	$12.22	+39%	+12.22	won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+10%	+12.88	won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+10%	+12.88	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	59%	1.79
St. Louis Cardinals win	41%	2.49

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.60	1.79	+12.4%
St. Louis Cardinals win		2.29	2.05	-10.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	—	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	St. Louis Cardinals	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	20.00	18.00
elo	1484.89	1537.52
elo momentum (last 5)	1.29	0.10
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.90	3.90
runs for avg (last 10)	4.40	5.70