← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.16) · home: Martín Pérez (ERA 3.14, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 3: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.11 | $12.22 | +39% | +12.22 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +14% | +7.63 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $17.84 | 1.76 | $13.61 | +5% | +13.61 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 54% | 1.80 |
| New York Mets win | 46% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.01 | 2.09 | +4.2% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.76 | 1.76 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1548.70 | 1491.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.47 | 14.62 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.40 |