← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bryan Woo (ERA 4.31, WHIP 1.12) · home: Ryan Weathers (ERA 3.79, WHIP 1.22)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 3: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.11 | $12.22 | +39% | +12.22 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +11% | +7.63 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $12.81 | 1.76 | $9.77 | +4% | +9.77 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 56% | 1.80 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 44% | 46.79 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.19 | 46.79 | +2039.5% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.73 | 1.76 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1549.12 | 1489.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.24 | -10.49 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 2.12 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.40 |