← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 7, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Shane Drohan (ERA 3.48, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Portfolio | $26.01 | 1.62 | $16.13 | +6% | -26.01 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.20 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.11 | $8.21 | +29% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 59% | 5.90 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 41% | 2.59 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.34 | 1.16 | -50.3% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.57 | 5.90 | +275.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1577.66 | 1467.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.87 | -7.28 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.01 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.90 |