New York Yankees 3–2 Atlanta Braves

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 7, 11:05 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: · home: Max Fried (ERA 3.12, WHIP 0.99)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Atlanta Braves win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.35	$13.50	+6%	-10.00	lost
Atlanta Braves win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.35	$13.50	+6%	-10.00	lost
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	5.11	$8.21	+29%	-2.00	lost
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.97	$9.70	+9%	+9.70	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	51%	2.19
Atlanta Braves win	49%	2.35

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Atlanta Braves win		1.70	2.19	+28.4%
New York Yankees win		2.01	1.67	-16.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2
New York Yankees	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	New York Yankees	Atlanta Braves
congestion 21d	19.00	20.00
elo	1547.67	1554.65
elo momentum (last 5)	-8.31	13.27
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	2.00	0.99
runs against avg (last 10)	3.70	3.40
runs for avg (last 10)	3.40	4.80