← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 7, 11:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 lost leg 2: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.11 | $8.21 | +29% | -2.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 57% | 9.41 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 43% | 2.49 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.26 | 1.10 | -51.2% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.57 | 9.41 | +498.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1487.35 | 1418.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.23 | 3.13 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.70 |