← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 7, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Parker Messick (ERA 2.57, WHIP 1.06)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | Portfolio | $21.77 | 2.23 | $26.78 | +10% | -21.77 | lost |
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.31 lost leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.02 | $20.05 | +42% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +22% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 52% | 2.19 |
| Chicago White Sox win | 48% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 2.19 | 1.71 | -21.8% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.86 | 2.19 | +17.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1496.85 | 1495.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.67 | -12.32 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |