← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 12:15 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Nathan Eovaldi (ERA 4.31, WHIP 1.21)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.31 lost leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.02 | $20.05 | +42% | -2.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.31 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.31 | $13.10 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.31 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.31 | $13.10 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 57% | 1.76 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 43% | 4.51 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.05 | 2.25 | +9.4% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.65 | 1.68 | +2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1491.33 | 1498.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.61 | -9.30 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.24 | 1.32 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |