← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 02:15 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 lost leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.31 lost leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.02 | $20.05 | +42% | -2.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +7% | +11.40 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.93 | $4.66 | -4% | +4.66 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 51% | 2.24 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 49% | 61.00 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.76 | 1.92 | +9.2% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.93 | 1.94 | +0.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| San Francisco Giants | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1478.00 | 1521.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.53 | 15.45 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.32 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 8.50 |