Texas Rangers 6–0 San Francisco Giants

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 06:35 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 won leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.02	$16.03	+42%	-2.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	Drought fade	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	+10%	-10.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	+10%	-10.00	lost
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	-1%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Texas Rangers win	60%	1.67
San Francisco Giants win	40%	15.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Francisco Giants win		2.24	2.46	+10.0%
Texas Rangers win		1.57	1.57	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
San Francisco Giants	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Texas Rangers	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	1	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Texas Rangers	San Francisco Giants
congestion 21d	18.00	18.00
elo	1487.58	1481.75
elo momentum (last 5)	-11.78	-4.53
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	4.80	4.00
runs for avg (last 10)	3.20	4.60