← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Mitch Bratt (ERA 5.23, WHIP 1.84)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 | Portfolio | $19.51 | 2.08 | $21.07 | +8% | +21.07 | won |
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 won leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.02 | $16.03 | +42% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.08 | $10.80 | +18% | +10.80 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 50% | 2.09 |
| San Diego Padres win | 50% | 2.19 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.91 | 1.83 | -4.6% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.76 | 2.01 | +14.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 10 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1519.28 | 1517.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.79 | 8.17 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.20 |