← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 6, 06:20 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.41, WHIP 1.08) · home: David Peterson (ERA 5.52, WHIP 1.48)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | Portfolio | $37.56 | 2.10 | $41.32 | +16% | +41.32 | won |
leg 1: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 won leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 3: San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 9.02 | $16.03 | +42% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +10% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 51% | 2.19 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 49% | 2.19 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.19 | 1.83 | -16.4% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.76 | 2.04 | +16.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1556.66 | 1497.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.83 | 1.14 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.40 |