Baltimore Orioles 5–2 Los Angeles Angels

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 10:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Reid Detmers (ERA 4.03, WHIP 1.1) · home: Trevor Rogers (ERA 4.27, WHIP 1.28)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75	Portfolio	$22.85	1.75	$17.14	+7%	+17.14	won
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	5.61	$9.23	+48%	-2.00	lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62	Drought fade	$10.00	1.62	$6.21	+9%	+6.21	won
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.62	$6.21	+9%	+6.21	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Baltimore Orioles win	57%	1.79
Los Angeles Angels win	43%	2.34

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Angels win		2.09	2.18	+4.1%
Baltimore Orioles win		1.65	1.74	+5.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
Baltimore Orioles	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	—	5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Baltimore Orioles	Los Angeles Angels
congestion 21d	16.00	16.00
elo	1500.52	1415.80
elo momentum (last 5)	-1.80	-4.76
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	5.80	4.70
runs for avg (last 10)	3.80	2.90