← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.29, WHIP 1.12) · home: Slade Cecconi (ERA 4.78, WHIP 1.47)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.02 | Portfolio | $24.52 | 2.02 | $25.01 | +10% | -24.52 | lost |
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.61 | $9.23 | +48% | -2.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 51% | 1.97 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 49% | 2.02 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 1.86 | 1.87 | +0.5% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.86 | 1.98 | +6.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1503.41 | 1474.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.43 | -3.63 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |