← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 11:30 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Paul Skenes (ERA 3.9, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.61 | $9.23 | +48% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +22% | +8.61 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Portfolio | $18.87 | 1.83 | $15.60 | +7% | +15.60 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 55% | 1.90 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 45% | 18.75 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.05 | 18.75 | +814.1% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.83 | 1.04 | -43.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1573.23 | 1495.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.85 | -2.30 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |