← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 3, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Bubba Chandler (ERA 4.56, WHIP 1.41) · home: Brandon Sproat (ERA 5.05, WHIP 1.39)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.72 | Portfolio | $19.63 | 1.72 | $14.13 | +6% | -19.63 | lost |
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.08 | $8.16 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 57% | 4.31 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 43% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.19 | 1.25 | -43.0% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.65 | 4.31 | +161.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1573.77 | 1494.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.06 | -8.54 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.18 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.50 |