← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 4, 12:00 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Logan Webb (ERA 3.93, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Portfolio | $14.30 | 1.97 | $13.87 | +6% | -14.30 | lost |
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.08 | $8.16 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 51% | 2.09 |
| Texas Rangers win | 49% | 8.56 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.86 | 1.08 | -41.9% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.90 | 8.56 | +351.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1490.03 | 1479.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.94 | 4.40 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.24 | 1.16 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.30 |