← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 4, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ian Seymour (ERA 4.37, WHIP 1.12) · home: Michael Lorenzen (ERA 6.54, WHIP 1.81)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.50 | +6% | +6.50 | won |
leg 1: Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 lost leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.08 | $8.16 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +5% | +6.21 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 41% | 23.43 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.67 | 1.03 | -38.6% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.29 | 23.43 | +923.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1393.12 | 1519.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.98 | -4.02 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.29 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.60 |