← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Slade Cecconi (ERA 4.6, WHIP 1.45) · home: Chase Burns (ERA 2.42, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.37 | Portfolio | $14.80 | 2.37 | $20.28 | +9% | +20.28 | won |
leg 1: Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.37 won leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Detroit Tigers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.10 | $20.20 | +35% | -2.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.37 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.37 | $13.70 | +19% | +13.70 | won |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.37 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.37 | $13.70 | +19% | +13.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 58% | 1.68 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 42% | 2.37 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1478.10 | 1508.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.44 | -17.61 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 1.98 | 2.06 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.50 |