← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Aaron Nola (ERA 5.82, WHIP 1.45) · home: Sandy Alcantara (ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.23)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.37 won leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Detroit Tigers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.10 | $20.20 | +35% | -2.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 51% | 1.97 |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 49% | 2.09 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.90 | 1.94 | +2.6% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.76 | 1.89 | +7.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1482.31 | 1537.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.56 | -6.69 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |