← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Trevor Rogers (ERA 4.17, WHIP 1.27) · home: Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.7, WHIP 0.92)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Orioles win in Detroit Tigers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.49 | Portfolio | $10.53 | 2.49 | $15.69 | +7% | +15.69 | won |
leg 1: Cleveland Guardians win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.37 won leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 lost leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Detroit Tigers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.10 | $20.20 | +35% | -2.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Detroit Tigers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +6% | +13.42 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Detroit Tigers v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +6% | +13.42 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 59% | 2.09 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 41% | 2.49 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.24 | 2.45 | +9.6% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.60 | 1.59 | -0.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1503.31 | 1502.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.54 | -3.96 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.10 |