← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 11:00 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.23, WHIP 1.35) · home: Grant Holmes (ERA 3.79, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.00 | +7% | +7.00 | won |
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.77 | $11.53 | +30% | +11.53 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +13% | +7.63 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $10.93 | 1.76 | $8.34 | +4% | +8.34 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Washington Nationals win | 45% | 2.31 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.01 | 2.24 | +11.4% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.70 | 1.67 | -1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1537.22 | 1475.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.37 | 3.61 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.60 |