← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 04:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Cole Winn (ERA 6.11, WHIP 1.36) · home: Shane McClanahan (ERA 3.09, WHIP 1.14)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.77 | $11.53 | +30% | +11.53 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +6% | +7.94 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 55% | 1.83 |
| Texas Rangers win | 45% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 2.09 | 2.20 | +5.0% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.73 | 1.70 | -1.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1526.10 | 1501.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.88 | 5.47 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |