← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Yohan Ramírez (ERA 3.21, WHIP 1.38) · home: Rhett Lowder (ERA 5.61, WHIP 1.57)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.77 | $11.53 | +30% | +11.53 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +9% | +11.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 51% | 4.13 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 49% | 2.19 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.83 | 4.13 | +125.8% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.83 | 1.26 | -30.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1475.00 | 1499.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.54 | -7.64 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |