← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Randy Dobnak (ERA 1.42, WHIP 1.37) · home: Joe Ryan (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Royals win in Minnesota Twins v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.60 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.60 | $16.00 | +10% | +16.00 | won |
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Minnesota Twins v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in San Francisco Giants v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.04 | $12.08 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Minnesota Twins v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +4% | +14.59 | won |
Kansas City Royals win in Minnesota Twins v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +4% | +14.59 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 61% | 1.62 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 39% | 2.66 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 2.40 | 2.53 | +5.5% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.52 | 1.57 | +3.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1473.47 | 1451.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.24 | 0.32 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.40 |