← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Gabriel Hughes (ERA 2.79, WHIP 1.14)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Minnesota Twins v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in San Francisco Giants v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.04 | $12.08 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +14% | +5.96 | won |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Portfolio | $21.65 | 1.62 | $13.45 | +6% | +13.45 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 41% | 2.52 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.19 | 2.24 | +2.3% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.57 | 1.67 | +6.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1512.24 | 1382.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.06 | -3.22 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.80 |