← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 07:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Shane Drohan (ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.2) · home: Logan Webb (ERA 3.98, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 won leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Minnesota Twins v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in San Francisco Giants v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.04 | $12.08 | +28% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in San Francisco Giants v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 53% | 1.97 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.83 | 1.79 | -1.8% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.86 | 2.05 | +10.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | — | 16 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1474.90 | 1581.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.26 | -2.74 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.20 |