← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 04:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.31, WHIP 1.17) · home: Ryan Gusto (ERA 4.5, WHIP 1.32)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.38 | Portfolio | $8.42 | 2.38 | $11.62 | +5% | +11.62 | won |
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.39 | $10.78 | +19% | +10.78 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +4% | +12.36 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +4% | +12.36 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Miami Marlins win | 43% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.65 | 1.62 | -1.6% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 2.14 | 2.36 | +10.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1484.42 | 1534.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.27 | -5.25 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |