⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Los Angeles Dodgers 4–2 Seattle Mariners

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 02:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Emerson Hancock (ERA 3.16, WHIP 1.01) · home: Eric Lauer (ERA 4.83, WHIP 1.26)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69
Portfolio$20.101.69$13.87+6%+13.87won
leg 1: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won
leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won
leg 3: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 won
Chaos parlay$2.006.39$10.78+19%+10.78won
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
Elo value MLB$10.001.62$6.21+10%+6.21won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Dodgers win61%1.70
Seattle Mariners win39%18.00

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Seattle Mariners win2.1216.20+665.1%
Los Angeles Dodgers win1.671.01-39.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Seattle Mariners0000000112
Los Angeles Dodgers10110100—4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLos Angeles DodgersSeattle Mariners
congestion 21d13.0015.00
elo1596.181509.73
elo momentum (last 5)-0.66-3.52
matches since win2.000.00
rest days1.001.00
runs against avg (last 10)4.104.40
runs for avg (last 10)4.604.40